U.S. equity indexes ended a volatile week lower, marking their fifth consecutive weekly decline. On the economic data front, jobless claims remained stable, while consumer sentiment declined. Meanwhile, Treasury markets are pricing in the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike, as Middle East conflict and rising oil prices heighten inflation risks.
European indexes were mixed amid uncertainty over how and when the Middle East conflict will be resolved. Against a backdrop of higher energy prices, the European Central Bank (ECB) signalled readiness to adjust its policy. Additionally, the OECD lowered its 2026 growth outlook for Europe.
Japan’s stock market posted mixed returns for the week. Economically, the nationwide core consumer price index eased, likely temporarily amid persistent oil price pressures. Chinese equity markets also fell. In the Philippines, authorities declared an energy emergency and suspended parts of the electricity market to curb price spikes from fuel shortages.
Higher oil and gasoline prices are poised to drive headline inflation back up to around 3.5% year-over-year, delaying progress toward the Fed's target for another year. A spike in inflation and tightening financial conditions will likely pressure consumer spending, housing, and other rate-sensitive sectors. Markets now price in a small risk of a Fed rate hike this year, though the central bank is balancing these inflation risks against threats to growth and the labour market.
| Asset Name | Weekly Closing Level | Weekly % Return |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,368.85 | -2.12% |
| DJIA (Dow Jones) | 45,166.64 | -0.90% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 20,948.36 | -3.23% |
| Nikkei 225 | 53,373.07 | 4.26% |
| FTSE 100 | 9,967.35 | 0.49% |
| Shanghai Composite | 3,913.72 | -1.10% |
| Sensex (BSE) | 73,583.22 | -1.27% |
| ADX Index (UAE) | 9,602.11 | 0.32% |
| Gold | 4,508.60 | -2.19% |
| Brent Oil (USD/bbl) | 105.32 | -1.02% |
Markets will likely remain sensitive to Middle East conflict news in the coming days and weeks, keeping short-term volatility elevated. While this may feel uncomfortable in the near term, it could create longer-term opportunities for certain investors. The recent bond sell-off over the past month allows fixed-income investors to lock in more attractive yields. Overall, the key message for many investors is to stay invested and diversified amid this latest geopolitical shock.
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Disclaimer
This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. For detailed insights, contact our investment team.